Procter & Gamble (PG) was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Lehman Brothers, which said it will be "tough" for the Dow industrials component to deliver above-average returns. "As we see it, P&G's business is healthy, but without much upside to fiscal 2008 margins versus our estimates nor likelihood of sustained re-acceleration in revenue growth," the broker said. On Monday
I posted the very same sentiment is less esoteric terms. It is simple, huge discounts are a sign of slowing sales. If the discounting produces the sales, it does so at the expense of margins. Either scenario mean profits will come under pressure..
And yes that makes it "tough", although I did not know it is usually "easy"
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Lehman Downgrades P&G Late
Procter & Gamble (PG) was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Lehman Brothers, which said it will be "tough" for the Dow industrials component to deliver above-average returns. "As we see it, P&G's business is healthy, but without much upside to fiscal 2008 margins versus our estimates nor likelihood of sustained re-acceleration in revenue growth," the broker said. On Monday
I posted the very same sentiment is less esoteric terms. It is simple, huge discounts are a sign of slowing sales. If the discounting produces the sales, it does so at the expense of margins. Either scenario mean profits will come under pressure..
And yes that makes it "tough", although I did not know it is usually "easy"
I posted the very same sentiment is less esoteric terms. It is simple, huge discounts are a sign of slowing sales. If the discounting produces the sales, it does so at the expense of margins. Either scenario mean profits will come under pressure..
And yes that makes it "tough", although I did not know it is usually "easy"
Refinery Output Push the Gas Prices?
Here is a great post that can be found at the blog The Mess That Greenspan Made. I take no credit for this, it is the authors in it's entirety and it is very good.
The Post:
If you've been wondering why gasoline prices have been so high lately with crude oil trading at only $66 per barrel, the answer can be found at the refineries.
This week's TWIP (This Week in Petroleum) from the Energy Information Administration has some interesting commentary and, as always, abundant charts to tell the story of how retail gasoline prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, down five cents to $3.16 per gallon.
First, it should be clear that this is not an oil problem. U.S. oil inventories, the biggest raw material cost for gasoline (duh!) have been at or above the range considered normal for this time of year. There is no oil problem - that will occur sometime in the future, maybe soon, we'll see.
Yet, prices at the pump remain near record highs, particularly here on the West Coast where special formulation requirements and higher taxes almost always result in higher prices.
Lucky us - at least there's no big brown cloud hanging over the Western U.S. (except sometimes in Phoenix) like the one hanging over parts of developing Asia .
Gasoline stocks are way down, though they've been recovering dramatically in recent weeks as indicated by the current slope of the red-dotted line below. It turned ultra-steep last week in an attempt to make up for lost time and keep up with demand from the summer driving season that just started.
Have the refineries suddenly finished all their yearly maintenance work and flipped all the right switches to boost production?
Production has improved in recent weeks but it remains below levels from December of last year - refinery utilization for this time of the year is still below the levels of the last three years.
The downward price pressure (if you can call retail prices falling from $3.30 per gallon to $3.16 per gallon price pressure) comes largely from an increase in gasoline imports which have reached new multi-year highs.
And of course demand continues to increase, current levels of consumption for this time of year again at all time highs despite the higher prices.
Remember what a big deal it was a couple years ago when when gasoline stations couldn't find enough number 3s to put up on their signs out at the curb?
With the precarious balance between the supply and demand for crude oil combined with aging refineries, it seems only a matter of time before there is a new crisis - finding enough number 4s.
The Post:
If you've been wondering why gasoline prices have been so high lately with crude oil trading at only $66 per barrel, the answer can be found at the refineries.
This week's TWIP (This Week in Petroleum) from the Energy Information Administration has some interesting commentary and, as always, abundant charts to tell the story of how retail gasoline prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, down five cents to $3.16 per gallon.
First, it should be clear that this is not an oil problem. U.S. oil inventories, the biggest raw material cost for gasoline (duh!) have been at or above the range considered normal for this time of year. There is no oil problem - that will occur sometime in the future, maybe soon, we'll see.
Yet, prices at the pump remain near record highs, particularly here on the West Coast where special formulation requirements and higher taxes almost always result in higher prices.
Lucky us - at least there's no big brown cloud hanging over the Western U.S. (except sometimes in Phoenix) like the one hanging over parts of developing Asia .
Gasoline stocks are way down, though they've been recovering dramatically in recent weeks as indicated by the current slope of the red-dotted line below. It turned ultra-steep last week in an attempt to make up for lost time and keep up with demand from the summer driving season that just started.
Have the refineries suddenly finished all their yearly maintenance work and flipped all the right switches to boost production?
Production has improved in recent weeks but it remains below levels from December of last year - refinery utilization for this time of the year is still below the levels of the last three years.
The downward price pressure (if you can call retail prices falling from $3.30 per gallon to $3.16 per gallon price pressure) comes largely from an increase in gasoline imports which have reached new multi-year highs.
And of course demand continues to increase, current levels of consumption for this time of year again at all time highs despite the higher prices.
Remember what a big deal it was a couple years ago when when gasoline stations couldn't find enough number 3s to put up on their signs out at the curb?
With the precarious balance between the supply and demand for crude oil combined with aging refineries, it seems only a matter of time before there is a new crisis - finding enough number 4s.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Citigroup's Top Secret Plan
edelfenbein
DealBreaker’s Bess Levin looks at Citigroup’s (C) newest strategy, breaking into the Boston banking market.
Pardon me while I go bang my head against the wall. First off, the Boston banking market is what? Four hundred years old. I’m sorry but this is just plain silliness.
Citigroup’s strategy is that it’s a “financial supermarket.” They figure “hey, we have credit card customers with Boston addresses, so they’ll certainly buy Smith Barney mutual funds!” You can just feel the synergy!
Let’s take a step back and look at this. We’re waiting to see if a company with $2 trillion in assets can make impact its business by impressing Bostonians with having one statement for their credit cards and investments.
Please, this is secret so whatever you do, don’t tell Fidelity (or State Street or Bank of America or Merrill Lynch or anybody else with $30 in deposits).
The financial supermarket idea doesn’t work. Repeat after me, Mr. Prince, it doesn’t work. I know, it sounds good on paper, but people don’t do their finances that way. They never have and they’re not about to now. This was just a nice idea to justify some lousy acquisitions many, many years ago.
Eddy’s rule of business #15,783: No matter who is put in charge to execute a dumb idea, when it starts to fail, people will blame the execution, not the dumb idea. Lots of people are ready to toss Chuck Prince overboard. Fine, but he’s not the problem.
Twenty-five years ago, Sears bought Dean Witter. They had this great idea. Stick brokerage offices in the stores! Well, it didn’t work and Sears eventually sold Dean Witter. Later Dean Witter bought Discover and turned it into a hugely profitable credit card business. Then Morgan merged with Dean Witter, and made a whole lotta money.
Guess what Morgan is spinning off now? Discover!
DealBreaker’s Bess Levin looks at Citigroup’s (C) newest strategy, breaking into the Boston banking market.
Pardon me while I go bang my head against the wall. First off, the Boston banking market is what? Four hundred years old. I’m sorry but this is just plain silliness.
Citigroup’s strategy is that it’s a “financial supermarket.” They figure “hey, we have credit card customers with Boston addresses, so they’ll certainly buy Smith Barney mutual funds!” You can just feel the synergy!
Let’s take a step back and look at this. We’re waiting to see if a company with $2 trillion in assets can make impact its business by impressing Bostonians with having one statement for their credit cards and investments.
Please, this is secret so whatever you do, don’t tell Fidelity (or State Street or Bank of America or Merrill Lynch or anybody else with $30 in deposits).
The financial supermarket idea doesn’t work. Repeat after me, Mr. Prince, it doesn’t work. I know, it sounds good on paper, but people don’t do their finances that way. They never have and they’re not about to now. This was just a nice idea to justify some lousy acquisitions many, many years ago.
Eddy’s rule of business #15,783: No matter who is put in charge to execute a dumb idea, when it starts to fail, people will blame the execution, not the dumb idea. Lots of people are ready to toss Chuck Prince overboard. Fine, but he’s not the problem.
Twenty-five years ago, Sears bought Dean Witter. They had this great idea. Stick brokerage offices in the stores! Well, it didn’t work and Sears eventually sold Dean Witter. Later Dean Witter bought Discover and turned it into a hugely profitable credit card business. Then Morgan merged with Dean Witter, and made a whole lotta money.
Guess what Morgan is spinning off now? Discover!
Trophy Stocks
edelfenbein
Tom Wolfe coined the phrase “trophy wife.” Now, Michael Lewis says the reason the rich want to own newspapers isn’t for the money, but for the status.
This logic explains what appears to be happening right now inside the two great national newspapers, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
The cachet of the New York Times is worth more to the Sulzberger family than to anyone else. The Sulzbergers' relationship to the Times is the chief source of their status; without it they are mere mortals with a bit of cash; and so the Sulzbergers cling to their control of the Times as tightly as ever.
Instead of getting out while the getting is good, they flop around looking for new ways to raise money without ceding control, and to make money without leaving the news business. Which is to say, they are working as hard as they possibly can to throw good money after bad -- with the predictable result that they have alienated their outside investors.
When you have nothing else to offer except a gazillion Class A shares, you’ll naturally overvalue your role, which the Bancrofts see as protecting the Journal’s independence. They’re confusing vanity for high-mindedness.
Tom Wolfe coined the phrase “trophy wife.” Now, Michael Lewis says the reason the rich want to own newspapers isn’t for the money, but for the status.
This logic explains what appears to be happening right now inside the two great national newspapers, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
The cachet of the New York Times is worth more to the Sulzberger family than to anyone else. The Sulzbergers' relationship to the Times is the chief source of their status; without it they are mere mortals with a bit of cash; and so the Sulzbergers cling to their control of the Times as tightly as ever.
Instead of getting out while the getting is good, they flop around looking for new ways to raise money without ceding control, and to make money without leaving the news business. Which is to say, they are working as hard as they possibly can to throw good money after bad -- with the predictable result that they have alienated their outside investors.
When you have nothing else to offer except a gazillion Class A shares, you’ll naturally overvalue your role, which the Bancrofts see as protecting the Journal’s independence. They’re confusing vanity for high-mindedness.
Morgan: Triple Sell
edelfenbein
FT Alphaville reports that Morgan Stanley's three key indicators are flashing SELL.
Since 1980, this has happened only five other times. Six months later, the stock market hasn't don't very well:
Apr 1981 -10.8% Sep 1987 -25.2% Feb 1990 -6.8% May 1992 -7.0% Apr 2002 -26.2%
FT Alphaville reports that Morgan Stanley's three key indicators are flashing SELL.
Since 1980, this has happened only five other times. Six months later, the stock market hasn't don't very well:
Apr 1981 -10.8% Sep 1987 -25.2% Feb 1990 -6.8% May 1992 -7.0% Apr 2002 -26.2%
WSJ on Bed Bath & Beyond
edelfenbein
The Wall Street Journal looks at Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) first-ever profting warning:
Bed Bath now trades at 16.1 times estimated per-share earnings for the next 12 months, a tad cheaper than the overall market, according to Credit Suisse. While that is well below the 25 price/earnings average of the past five years, Bed Bath doesn't have the growth prospects it once had for its flagship stores, and investors have been frustrated with the slow progress in its other businesses, such as its specialty Christmas Tree Shops.
Bulls point out that Bed Bath's balance sheet is impressive. It holds about $1 billion more cash than debt, according to data company Capital IQ.
And the earnings disappointment was relatively minor: The company said it would earn between 36 cents and 38 cents in the first quarter, which ended June 2, compared with expectations of 39 cents. Bed Bath's same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are expected to rise 1.6%, besting many peers though below the company's longstanding projection of 3% to 5% growth.
But there are indications that Bed Bath's historically juicy profit margins -- 14% in 2006 -- may be challenged by competitors, such as closely held Linens 'n Things, which has been cutting prices amid its own sales decline.
Another reason for bearishness: The company's stores are getting older and are about at the point where money is needed to update them, argues Stephen Long, a portfolio manager at Hanover Square Capital, a New York hedge fund with less than $50 million in assets, which has been betting against Bed Bath in recent months.
"Growth is falling; that suggests to us that the core concept is very mature," Mr. Long says. "The stock will drift down to $33 as growth investors" bail out of the stock and are replaced by value-oriented investors.
I still don’t see any reason to worry. All of the problems cited are problems that nearly every company in the sector faces. Let’s not forget the basics: BBBY is a very well-managed company, with sold financials going for a reasonable price. The bullish case for BBBY is that simple.
The Wall Street Journal looks at Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) first-ever profting warning:
Bed Bath now trades at 16.1 times estimated per-share earnings for the next 12 months, a tad cheaper than the overall market, according to Credit Suisse. While that is well below the 25 price/earnings average of the past five years, Bed Bath doesn't have the growth prospects it once had for its flagship stores, and investors have been frustrated with the slow progress in its other businesses, such as its specialty Christmas Tree Shops.
Bulls point out that Bed Bath's balance sheet is impressive. It holds about $1 billion more cash than debt, according to data company Capital IQ.
And the earnings disappointment was relatively minor: The company said it would earn between 36 cents and 38 cents in the first quarter, which ended June 2, compared with expectations of 39 cents. Bed Bath's same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are expected to rise 1.6%, besting many peers though below the company's longstanding projection of 3% to 5% growth.
But there are indications that Bed Bath's historically juicy profit margins -- 14% in 2006 -- may be challenged by competitors, such as closely held Linens 'n Things, which has been cutting prices amid its own sales decline.
Another reason for bearishness: The company's stores are getting older and are about at the point where money is needed to update them, argues Stephen Long, a portfolio manager at Hanover Square Capital, a New York hedge fund with less than $50 million in assets, which has been betting against Bed Bath in recent months.
"Growth is falling; that suggests to us that the core concept is very mature," Mr. Long says. "The stock will drift down to $33 as growth investors" bail out of the stock and are replaced by value-oriented investors.
I still don’t see any reason to worry. All of the problems cited are problems that nearly every company in the sector faces. Let’s not forget the basics: BBBY is a very well-managed company, with sold financials going for a reasonable price. The bullish case for BBBY is that simple.
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